NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:NFL MVP rankings: CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson close gap on Patrick Mahomes

This week marks the one-third mark of the 2024 NFL season. Through five games,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center some teams and players have outperformed expectations while others have fallen short. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are 5-0, as are the Minnesota Vikings. Popular playoff picks Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Rams are both 1-4 to start the year due to different issues.

As we reach Week 6, the NFL MVP race continues to change. Favorites have dropped while younger players have made their way up the order. Here's how the top five look - with odds from BetMGM - ahead of Week 6.

NFL MVP rankings by odds: Week 6

Odds as of Friday.

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5. QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (+1000)

The early frontrunner for NFL Rookie of the Year is now a top-five MVP candidate. Daniels leads the league in completion percentage (77.1%) with eight total touchdowns (four rushing, four passing) to just two interceptions. He isn't settling for short throws, though, with an average throw depth of 7.1 yards per Sports Information Solutions (SIS) data. That's tied for 16th among starting quarterbacks league-wide.

This week is likely his toughest test of the season against the Baltimore Ravens' defense. If he plays well and wins on Sunday, his odds could improve.

4. QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+750)

Allen was an early frontrunner for the award after Buffalo's 3-0 start to the season. Consecutive losses to Baltimore (35-10) and Houston (23-20) have dropped him down to fourth.

Buffalo's offense struggled without top receiver Khalil Shakir in the two losses. Allen continues to avoid mistakes - he's the only full-time starting quarterback in the NFL without an interception - but needs Shakir back to give the offense an advantage, otherwise he'll be stuck with difficult throws for much of his Sundays.

T-2. QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+650)

Jackson and the Ravens' offense is rounding into form since Week 2. Over the last three games, Baltimore is averaging 467 yards on offense and 36 points per game. They've become the top rushing attack and the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL behind the dual threat of Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jackson is improving as a passer in 2024. He's on pace for a career-high in net yards per attempt and a career low in sack percentage. The Ravens have a chance to put up lots of yards and points again this week against Washington. If Jackson has another strong performance, he could inch closer to the top spot.

T-2. QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (+650)

Stroud powered the Texans to a win last week despite missing leading wide receiver Nico Collins for much of the game. Collins is out for at least the next four weeks with a hamstring injury but Houston still has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell at the position to help.

Stroud's completion percentage and yards per game is already up from last season's Offensive Rookie of the Year-winning campaign. Houston has road games in the next two weeks, starting Sunday against New England. Two wins could close the gap to the top even more.

1. QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+240)

At the start of the season, the Chiefs starting 5-0 and Mahomes leading the MVP rankings seemed like a likely scenario. But it is a bit surprising considering he leads the league in interceptions with six and is currently on pace for a career-low in yards per game and quarterback rating as well as a career-high in sack percentage.

But Mahomes is completing a career-best 69.4% of his passes and the Chiefs offense is making enough plays to stay ahead in crucial moments. They're off this week but go on the road for a Super Bowl rematch against the 49ers in Week 7. A win won't likely change his odds much; a loss likely would drop him the rankings.

Next five: QB Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (+1300); QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+1500); QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (+1600); QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+2000); QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (+2800)